The ARKK On/Off Portfolio


Status Date: 2026-06-30

Current Status: 100% Cash

Rolling 12 month return:

ARKK On/Off: 15.5%

ARKK ETF: 17.2%

From inception on 2021-04-12:

ARKK On/Off: 64.2%

ARKK ETF: -34.0%


ARKK On Off

The ARKK On-Off portfolio is the modern day version of the alchemy of turning lead into gold.

You also get a side order of gentler drawdowns and more consistent profits compared to just buying and holding ARKK.

If you are not familiar with the ARK Technology ETF, it has earned quite a reputation over the years for outsized moves both up and down. It also tends to own the same stocks that active traders are dabbling in, by the way. Those boom-or-bust stocks seem to be both a feature and a bug in ARKK.

It turns out that if you trade it the way we descibe below, it can be a nice counter-cyclical addition to your toolbox. This strategy works best in a declining or sideways market.

This portfolio is always either 100% invested in ARKK or 100% in cash, nothing in between.

You can see from the results below that even basic trading rules can produce good results from a declining asset. The portfolio's trading rules are such that it has historically been in the market only 15-18% of the time, freeing up your stash for other opportunities.

Performance since inception

The rules for the portfolio are simple:

BUY THE NEXT OPEN when RSI(2) closes below 10 for two days in a row.

SELL THE NEXT OPEN when RSI(2) closes above 70.

ARKK is very actively traded, with Bid-Ask spreads of only a penny most of the time. However, we have added 3 cents to the purchase price and deducted 3 cents from every selling price to account for any reasonable slippage.